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Daily Sabah (13 March 2025)

Zeynep Gizem Özpınar

Cyprus talks in Geneva highlight the decadeslong diplomatic deadlock as the Eastern Mediterranean gains importance due to hydrocarbon resources.

The Cyprus issue is not only a political dispute between the two communities on the island but also a strategic problem that directly affects the geopolitical balance in the Eastern Mediterranean. The competition over the energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, the armament trends in the region, and the occasional escalation of tensions in Türkiye-Greece relations have transformed the Cyprus issue from a mere negotiation process into a broader geopolitical struggle. Although the five-party conference to be held in Geneva on March 17-18 with the participation of the Turkish and Greek Cypriot sides, as well as the guarantor states Türkiye, Greece and the United Kingdom, is touted as a new stage in the search for a solution, current political realities suggest that this meeting will be a diplomatic initiative in which the parties will maintain their current positions rather than making structural progress.

Türkiye and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) emphasize that the federation model no longer offers a sustainable solution and that a two-state structure is the only realistic alternative in Cyprus. On the other hand, the Greek Cypriot administration and Greece refuse to recognize the sovereign equality of the Turkish Cypriot people, advocating a federation model based on the principle of one sovereignty and one state. This situation makes it almost impossible for the parties to find common ground in the negotiation process. Lastly, the U.K., as one of the guarantor states under the 1960 Cyprus Treaty, will attend the Geneva meeting with a low-profile bureaucratic representation.

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