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AzerNews (23 January 2025)

Akbar Novruz

Armenian intelligence has assessed the probability of large-scale military action by Azerbaijan against Armenia in 2025 as low, according to a recent report by Armenia's Foreign Intelligence Service, Azernews reports.

The report, which examines key risks and threats for the year, underscores that while a full-scale war is deemed unlikely, localized skirmishes and escalations remain plausible. According to Armenian media, the analysis highlights that ongoing border delimitation and demarcation processes could play a role in reducing the likelihood of broader confrontations.

However, the report also warns that the absence of a concrete peace treaty increases the risk of sporadic clashes. Bilateral negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are noted as the most viable avenue for reducing tensions, but delays in normalizing relations or signing peace agreements may lead to prolonged uncertainty and heightened risks.

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