When considering what kinds of developments could take place within Turkey-Armenia relations in 2013, the picture that emerges is not very positive. Armenia has shown great reaction to Turkey linking the implementation of the Protocols to important developments occurring in the Karabakh conflict and in fact has taken the Protocols off the agenda of Armenia’s National Assembly. During the approximately three years that have passed, no development has been seen in the relations of the two countries that could be considered as positive and on the contrary, the statements against Turkey of Armenian statesmen, particularly Serge Sarkisian, have increased. Among these statements are Turkey’s recognition of the genocide allegations, which was almost never mentioned before, and also even paying compensation. When examining the reasons for Armenia’s such harsh stance, it has been observed that Sarkisian has first acted with the purpose to evade the protocols which were not only criticized by the Diaspora but also in Armenia and at the same time, to eliminate the conviction that he is making concessions to Turkey. Sarkisian has been successful in this. Even during this current election period, Sarkisian has not received criticisms regarding the Protocols. Secondly, it has been seen that Armenia’s policy of “normalizing relations with Turkey without preconditions”; in other words, the ratification of the Protocols without being linked to the Karabakh conflict and Turkey opening its border with Armenia have been embraced by the US and EU countries. This situation has naturally encouraged Armenia in its policy towards Turkey. On the other hand, in reaction to Russia’s initiatives to make Armenia a member of the Eurasian Union, European Union’s desire to tie up Armenia to Europe by signing a partnership agreement has reinforced Armenia’s conviction that it is on the right path. Meanwhile, it is possible that following the signing of a partnership agreement, Armenia will utilize its new position to carry out some activities against Turkey within the EU and especially those concerning the commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the 1915 relocations. It could be observed that opposite to this rather “harsh” stance of Armenia, Turkey tries to follow a moderate and constructive policy. On the other hand, Turkey seeks to conduct dialogue with the “reasonable” circles of the Diaspora. Moreover, serious progress has been made in resolving some problems of its citizens of Armenian origin particularly concerning their foundations and churches. However, Armenia ignores these gestures of good will and continues its uncompromising policy. Such a policy could be beneficial during the election period but it is inevitable that it will create results to Armenia’s disadvantage in the long term. First of all this policy will further increase the existing solidarity between Turkey and Azerbaijan. It is possible that the deadlock of the Karabakh conflict will cause an arms race between Armenia and Azerbaijan which Armenia cannot sustain. On the other hand, the Karabakh conflict not being resolved will cause the Turkish border gate to remain closed. Lastly, Armenia will continue to remain outside the great cooperation projects between Turkey, Turkey-Azerbaijan and Georgia (such as transport of natural gas and petroleum, new railway lines, construction of new transit highways in the future) and will depend more on Russia in a time of such isolation. Meanwhile, it will become clear that apart from obtaining some financial aid, partnership with the EU will not help Armenia very much in resolving problems with its neighbors. In short, it could be seen that as long as its current policy continues, it will be inevitable for Armenia to encounter some serious problems in the future that will be very difficult for it to overcome.
© 2009-2024 Center for Eurasian Studies (AVİM) All Rights Reserved
No comments yet.
-
PRESIDENT SARKISIAN AND TURKEY
Ömer Engin LÜTEM 21.01.2012 -
THE MONUMENT IN OTTAWA
Ömer Engin LÜTEM 24.09.2012 -
ARMENIAN PROPERTIS II
Ömer Engin LÜTEM 21.12.2010 -
PRESIDENT SARKISIAN VISITING NICOSIA AND ATHENS
Ömer Engin LÜTEM 20.01.2011 -
NEW DRAFT RESOLUTIONS IN THE U.S.A
Ömer Engin LÜTEM 16.06.2011
-
AVIM HELD MEETINGS WITH THINK TANKS AND ACADEMIC CIRCLES IN TEHRAN
AVİM 17.09.2015 -
ARMEN SARKISSIAN’S PRESIDENCY AND THE QUESTIONS ON ETHICS AND POLITICAL CULTURE IN ARMENIA (26.01.2022)
Turgut Kerem TUNCEL 26.01.2022 -
CASPIAN SEA NATURAL GAS PIPELINE ITENARY DECIDED
Alev KILIÇ 01.07.2013 -
THE NEW KID ON THE BLOCK: LATVIAN PARLIAMENT’S RECOGNITION OF THE ‘ARMENIAN GENOCIDE’
Turgut Kerem TUNCEL 18.05.2021 -
AVİM ON THE ELEVENTH ANNIVERSARY OF ITS FOUNDING
Teoman Ertuğrul TULUN 05.02.2020
-
THE TRUTH WILL OUT -
Türk-Ermeni İlişkileri Üzerine Ömer Engin Lütem Konferansları 2023 -
Türk-Ermeni İlişkileri Üzerine Ömer Engin Lütem Konferansları 2022 -
RADİKAL ERMENİ UNSURLARCA GERÇEKLEŞTİRİLEN MEZALİMLER VE VANDALİZM -
PATRIOTISM PERVERTED -
MEN ARE LIKE THAT -
BAKÜ-TİFLİS-CEYHAN BORU HATTININ YAŞANAN TARİHİ -
INTERNATIONAL SCHOLARS ON THE EVENTS OF 1915 -
FAKE PHOTOS AND THE ARMENIAN PROPAGANDA -
ERMENİ PROPAGANDASI VE SAHTE RESİMLER -
Türk-Ermeni İlişkileri Üzerine Ömer Engin Lütem Konferansları 2021 -
A Letter From Japan - Strategically Mum: The Silence of the Armenians -
Japonya'dan Bir Mektup - Stratejik Suskunluk: Ermenilerin Sessizliği -
Türk-Ermeni Uyuşmazlığı Üzerine Ömer Engin Lütem Konferansları 2020 -
Anastas Mikoyan: Confessions of an Armenian Bolshevik -
Sovyet Sonrası Ukrayna’da Devlet, Toplum ve Siyaset - Değişen Dinamikler, Dönüşen Kimlikler -
Türk-Ermeni Uyuşmazlığı Üzerine Ömer Engin Lütem Konferansları 2019 -
Türk-Ermeni Uyuşmazlığı Üzerine Ömer Engin Lütem Konferansları 2018 -
Ermeni Sorunuyla İlgili İngiliz Belgeleri (1912-1923) - British Documents on Armenian Question (1912-1923) -
Turkish-Russian Academics: A Historical Study on the Caucasus -
Gürcistan'daki Müslüman Topluluklar: Azınlık Hakları, Kimlik, Siyaset -
Armenian Diaspora: Diaspora, State and the Imagination of the Republic of Armenia -
Ermeni Sorunu Temel Bilgi ve Belgeler (2. Baskı)
-
EU-TÜRKİYE COOPERATION IN CENTRAL ASIA AND SOUTH CAUCASUS: TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE ENGAGEMENT IN ENERGY AND CONNECTIVITY -
AVİM 2023 YILLIK RAPOR | ANNUAL REPORT -
ÇAĞDAŞ BATI AVRUPA AKADEMİ DÜNYASINDA IRKÇILIĞIN VE YABANCI DÜŞMANLIĞININ ARAŞTIRILMASININ ZORLUĞU: FRANSA ÖRNEĞİ
-
CONFERENCE TITLED “HUNGARY’S PERSPECTIVES ON THE TURKIC WORLD"