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Foreign Policy (21 January 2025)

By Giorgio Cafiero

While many in the region fear a tilt toward Serb nationalists, the new administration’s transactionalism could surprise everyone.

Most discussions in Washington about the Trump administration’s approach to global affairs relate to Ukraine, China, the Middle East, and most recently Greenland; there is little talk of the Western Balkans(*). Nonetheless, shifts in U.S. foreign policy in the region could upset the fragile status quo prevailing there. The Western Balkans’ current state of affairs and delicate geopolitical equilibrium have prevented Bosnia and Herzegovina from sliding back into civil war while keeping the Serbia-Kosovo conflict frozen for the past 26 years.

Serb nationalists, in particular, are hopeful about U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House. They are optimistic that his administration will align Washington more closely with Belgrade and the Bosnian Serb statelet of Republika Srpska.

(*) AVİM considers the term "Western Balkans" to be a politically motivated separatist terminology and insists on the use of the geographical and historical identification "Balkans" regarding the region.

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