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Politico (14 October 2022)

BY ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is so weakened that his army hasn’t been called to fight in Ukraine because Russian President Vladimir Putin can’t be sure the troops would follow his orders, exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said.

“I’m sure that he [Lukashenko] would give the order to the Belarusian army to participate in this invasion — if he was sure they would fight,” Tsikhanouskaya told POLITICO during an interview in Brussels. “Just imagine the situation if he made this order, the Belarusian army went across the border, and they defect, they change sides, they hide, because they actually don’t want to fight the Ukrainians. Just imagine his reputation in front of Putin, in front of the Kremlin — it would be an epic fail.”

Lukashenko has upped his saber-rattling this week by pledging to conduct joint deployments with the Russians. While such maneuvers must always be closely observed because Belarus is an important springboard for invading Ukraine or conducting air raids, Tsikhanouskaya insisted Putin could hardly allow the Belarusian soldiers to cross the border. 

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