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Eurasianet (8 February 2021)

Nathan Hutson, Marsha McGraw Olive

A new dynamic governing regional integration is shaping up in Central Asia. Uzbekistan is challenging Kazakhstan’s position as the region’s power broker, and China’s economic choices may well be a critical factor in determining the outcome of the leadership rivalry.   

The shift seems counterintuitive on the surface, given that Kazakhstan’s economy currently generates three times the GDP of Uzbekistan’s. Kazakhstan also enjoys better connectivity with international markets. Nur-Sultan’s strong diplomatic relations with China and Russia should seemingly ensure that Kazakhstan remains the main driver of regional integration. Nevertheless, the reality is that the road to Central Asian stability and prosperity is increasingly running through Tashkent.

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