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Prime minister Haidar al-Abadi launches operations against Isis

Ft, 17 October 2016

Iraq has launched its much-anticipated offensive to recapture its second city Mosul from Isis, the biggest test yet in its two-year struggle against the jihadi force.

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Haidar al-Abadi, Iraq’s prime minister, announced the start of operations in a late-night television address on Sunday surrounded by military leaders.

“The hour of victory has come and the operations to liberate Mosul have come,” said Mr Abadi, dressed in a security forces uniform. “God willing, together we will celebrate your liberation and your deliverance … This year, 2016, will be the year of liberation from Isis.”

Hundreds of Isis militants over-ran Mosul in June 2014 as tens of thousands of Iraqi forces in the city fled, sparking the near-collapse of the army as soldiers melted away in the face of a blitz across northern Iraq and neighbouring Syria.

At its height, Isis controlled nearly a third of Iraq and half of Syria. After months of hard-won battles under the air cover of a US-led international air campaign, Iraqi forces have now squeezed the militants into a final 10 per cent of Iraqi territory.

Mosul, seen as one of the de facto capitals of the jihadis’ self-proclaimed caliphate, is the group’s last major urban stronghold in Iraq.

“This is a decisive moment in the campaign to deliver Isil [Isis] a lasting defeat,” said Ashton Carter, the US defence secretary, adding that the US and the international coalition “stand ready to support Iraqi Security Forces, Peshmerga fighters and the people of Iraq in the difficult fight ahead. We are confident our Iraqi partners will prevail against our common enemy.”

Videos shared by Iraqi officials on Monday, said to be from the front lines, showed streams of bullets and flashes of rocket fire lighting up the night sky.

According to local Kurdish media, six villages out of a planned target of nine have already been retaken.

Western and Iraqi officials still do not know how Isis will respond to the attack, which Washington says will mobilise a 30,000-strong force of Iraqi soldiers, the Kurdish peshmerga and local militias.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, centre, surrounded by top military and police officers as he announces the start of the operation to liberate the northern city of Mosul from Islamic State militants.

The militants could make a last stand in the city, leading to a long and destructive battle, or, facing encirclement, flee within weeks as they did in the army’s capture of Falluja in July. Air strikes have intensified against Isis positions in the city ahead of the attack.

Colonel John Dorrian, the coalition spokesman, said that more than 50 air strikes have been conducted in the past two weeks alone.

“We now have all the pieces in place to get Daesh out of Mosul,” said Brett McGurk, US special envoy to the anti-Isis coalition.

Many unknowns loom in the battle ahead. Iraqi security officials fear the jihadi force could unleash poison gas from suspected chemical weapons stockpiles in the city.

Humanitarians warn of a worst-case scenario that could see hundreds of thousands of people trying to flee the city. Aid workers say they have only prepared for some 60,000 of the 200,000 who could flee in the first few days alone.

There are also growing concerns that the fight could spark dangerous rivalries among the regional forces aligned against Isis.

A war of words erupted between Mr Abadi and Recep Tayep Erdogan, Turkey’s president, over Ankara’s insistence that it will play a role in Mosul, 70km from its southern border. Some 2,000-3,000 Turkish servicemen are based inside Iraq, over Baghdad’s objections.

Turkey and local Iraqi Sunni leaders have also warned against the entrance of Shia-dominated militias, known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), which have vowed to play a role.

They say that a PMF role could spark sectarian strife in the largely Sunni city of Mosul, where locals fear retribution by Shia forces that rights groups accuse of killing and detaining Sunnis in recaptured areas.

Washington played a critical role bringing together the factious allies in the final weeks ahead of the operation, said Hisham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi analyst who studies Isis.

He anticipated a fierce final stand for Isis, which activists in Mosul say has built underground tunnels in the city and dug trenches to fill with burning oil ahead of the campaign.

Mr Abadi called on citizens to co-operate with security forces in the hope of speeding up the operation and minimising destruction, but vowed to have teams ready to help rebuild. “We will bring back life and stability to Mosul,” he said.

Coalition planes dropped leaflets to residents warning them to stay indoors and asking them not to panic.

“This is the decisive battle against Isis,” Mr Hashimi said. “What happens here will decide our fate.”