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Politico (5 April 2024)

BY MUJTABA RAHMAN

Whether in Brussels or any other European capital, these days it’s impossible to have any discussion about France without reference to the risk of opposition leader Marine Le Pen’s presidency in 2027.

Europeanizing France’s nuclear deterrent? “But would Le Pen stand by it?” France’s long-term commitment to Ukraine? “Would Le Pen support it?” Enlargement? “She would oppose it.” Just as former U.S. President Donald Trump has been able to set the parameters of America’s foreign policy from outside the White House, there’s a risk that Le Pen will now be able to do the same for France — and the EU — from outside the Elysée.

There are several reasons to believe Le Pen might become president on her fourth attempt, the first of which has little to do with her and everything to do with the cantankerous, fickle nature of the French electorate.

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