Daily Sabah (14 June 2025)

Hazel ÇAĞAN ELBİR*

Poland has reached a critical juncture following the second round of its presidential election on June 1, 2025, where conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), secured 50.89% of the vote to become president. This narrow victory over Rafał Trzaskowski, the pro-European liberal candidate supported by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition, marks a significant setback for the government’s efforts to align Poland with EU values. Nawrocki’s ascent carries profound implications for Poland’s position within the European Union, its approach to human rights norms and its transatlantic relations. This analysis examines the impact of Nawrocki’s presidency on Poland’s relationship with EU principles, with particular focus on criticisms of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) and regional dynamics, viewed through the lens of Türkiye’s foreign policy interests.

Profile, skeptical stance

At 42, Nawrocki brings a background as the former head of the National Remembrance Institute and director of the Second World War Museum, coupled with his identity as an amateur boxer. Embracing the conservative and nationalist ideology of PiS, Nawrocki champions Poland’s traditional Christian values, expresses skepticism toward the EU, and seeks to strengthen ties with the United States, particularly under the influence of Donald Trump’s administration. His campaign platform included promises to reduce taxes, withdraw from the EU’s Migration and Asylum Pact and European Green Deal, oppose Ukraine’s NATO membership, and adopt a reserved stance on LGBTQ+ rights. These policies signal a potential divergence from the EU’s liberal framework.

Nawrocki’s presidency holds the potential to exacerbate tensions with the EU. In Poland, the president wields significant authority, including the power to veto legislation and influence foreign policy. His predecessor, Andrzej Duda, frequently utilized this veto to obstruct Tusk’s pro-EU initiatives, such as judicial reforms and abortion law changes, creating friction between Warsaw and Brussels. Nawrocki is likely to follow suit, posing a particular challenge to reforms aligned with EU values, including judicial independence, abortion rights, and LGBTQ protections, which conflict with his conservative agenda.

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*Analyst at Center for Eurasian Studies (AVİM)

**Photo: Daily Sabah